By Dafna Linzer
September 14, 2005
Washington Post
UNITED NATIONS, Sept. 13 -- With an hour-long slide show that blends satellite
imagery with disquieting assumptions about Iran's nuclear energy program, Bush
administration officials have been trying to convince allies that Tehran is on a
fast track toward nuclear weapons.
The PowerPoint briefing, titled "A History of Concealment and Deception," has
been presented to diplomats from more than a dozen countries. Several diplomats
said the presentation, intended to win allies for increasing pressure on the
Iranian government, dismisses ambiguities in the evidence about Iran's
intentions and omits alternative explanations under debate among intelligence
analysts.
The presenters argue that the evidence leads solidly to a conclusion that
Iran's nuclear program is aimed at producing weapons, according to diplomats who
have attended the briefings and U.S. officials who helped to assemble the slide
show. But even U.S. intelligence estimates acknowledge that other possibilities
are plausible, though unverified.
The problem, acknowledged one U.S. official, is that the evidence is not
definitive. Briefers "say you can't draw any other conclusion, and of course you
can draw other conclusions," said the official, who would discuss the
closed-door sessions only on condition of anonymity.
The briefings were conducted in Vienna over the past month in advance of a
gathering of world leaders this week at the United Nations. President Bush, who
is to address the annual General Assembly gathering Wednesday, and Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice, plan to use the meeting to press for agreement to
threaten international sanctions against Iran.
The president's direct involvement marks an escalation of a two-year effort to
bring Iran before the U.N. Security Council, which has the power to impose
sanctions, unless Tehran gives up technology capable of enriching uranium for a
bomb. U.S. officials have acknowledged that it has been an uphill campaign, with
opposition from key allies who fear a prelude to a military campaign.
Several diplomats said the slide show reminded them of the flawed presentation
on Iraq's weapons programs made by then-secretary of state Colin L. Powell to
the U.N. Security Council in February 2003. "I don't think they'll lose any
support, but it isn't going to win anyone either," said one European diplomat
who attended the recent briefing and whose country backs the U.S. position on
Iran.
Robert G. Joseph, undersecretary of state for arms control and international
security, acknowledged last week that despite European support, the Bush
administration has traveled a tough road in persuading others that Iran should
face consequences for a nuclear program it built in secret.
"There's a great deal of resistance . . . on the part of many governments who
don't seem to place, quite frankly, nonproliferation and Iran, a nuclear-armed
Iran, at the top of their priority list," he told a congressional panel last
week.
Several influential nations such as India, Russia, China, South Africa and
Brazil share U.S. suspicions about Iran's intentions. But they maintain profound
differences with the Bush administration over how to respond, and are
apprehensive about the goals of a U.S. president who has said "all options are
on the table," in dealing with Tehran.
Three years ago, the White House used the same annual gathering to put both
Iraq, and the world community on notice. In a toughly-worded speech, delivered
six months before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Bush warned that the United States
would deal alone, if necessary, with a dictator bent on launching nuclear
weapons.
The U.S. intelligence community no longer believes Iraq was trying to
reconstitute a nuclear program, as the president said. Those and other U.S.
intelligence failures have remained fresh in the minds of international
decision-makers now being asked to weigh the case of Iran.
The Iraq experience has had a "sobering effect" on Iran discussions, said
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, a close ally of the Bush administration.
In an interview, he refused to speculate on whether Iran, whose program was
secretly aided by Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, had been designed for
weapons production. But he said he feels confident Iran's aims are now peaceful
and there was no need for Security Council action.
Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is also attending the U.N.
summit, has his own meetings scheduled in New York, and Iranian officials said
he would use the gathering to mount forceful counterarguments. Iranian diplomats
have been in close contact with countries such as Japan, which relies heavily on
Iranian oil.
The outcome of both sides' efforts will be tested on Sept. 19, when diplomats
from 35 countries meet at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna to
decide whether to report Iran's case to the Security Council.
Undersecretary of State R. Nicholas Burns last night suggested the
administration may not be able to press for a successful vote and was exploring
other options. He said the administration was working "with lots of other
governments to devise an international coalition that will call upon Iran to
return to the talks," it walked away from this summer with European negotiators.
"There is a consensus that Iran has got to return to the talks."
Iran insists its nuclear efforts are aimed at producing nuclear energy, not
bombs. The Bush administration contends that the energy program, built in secret
and exposed in 2002, is just a cover. "They cannot be allowed to develop nuclear
weapons under the guise of a civilian nuclear program, which is what they're
trying to do," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said earlier this
month.
A recent U.S. intelligence estimate found that Iran, mostly through its energy
program, is acquiring and mastering technologies that could also be used for
bomb-making. But there is no proof that such diversion has occurred, the
estimate said, and the intelligence community is uncertain as to whether Iran's
ruling clerics have made a decision to go forward with a nuclear weapons
program.
The estimate judged Iran to be as much as a decade away from being able to
manufacture the fissile material necessary for a nuclear explosion. A report
issued last week by the International Institute for Security Studies, a
London-based research group, found Iran was 10 to 15 years from the technical
know-how to build a bomb.
Both reports are based in large part on the findings of U.N. nuclear
inspectors, now in their third year of investigating Iran's program. While no
proof of a weapons program has been found, serious questions about Tehran's past
work on centrifuge designs and experiments with plutonium -- a key ingredient
for a nuclear weapon -- have yet to be adequately addressed and have furthered
suspicions that the country is hiding information.
With little new information from the probe, the Bush administration put
together its own presentation of Iran's program for diplomats in Vienna who are
weighing whether to report Iran to the Security Council.
The presentation has not been vetted through standard U.S. intelligence
channels because it does not include secret material. One U.S. official involved
in the briefing said the intelligence community had nothing to do with the
presentation and "probably would have disavowed some of it because it draws
conclusions that aren't strictly supported by the facts."
The presentation, conducted in a conference room at the U.S. mission in Vienna,
includes a pictorial comparison of Iranian facilities and missiles with photos
of similar-looking items in North Korea and Pakistan, according to a copy of the
slides handed out to diplomats. Pakistan largely supplied Iran with its nuclear
infrastructure but, as a key U.S. ally, it is identified in the presentation
only as "another country."
Corey Hinderstein, a nuclear analyst with the Institute for Science and
International Security, said the presence of a weapons program could not be
established through such comparisons. She noted that North Korea's missile
wasn't designed for nuclear weapons so comparing it to an Iranian missile that
also wasn't designed to carry a nuclear payload "doesn't make sense."
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